Jet Fuel Prices Nearly Doubled. What That Means for Summer Flights

Jet fuel prices in the United States nearly doubled between late February and early April 2026. On February 27, a gallon of jet fuel cost $2.50. By April 2, that number hit $4.88. The cause is straightforward. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following the U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran that began on February 28, has choked off a significant portion of the world's oil supply.

About one-fifth of the world's oil flows through that narrow waterway. When it shut down, everything downstream got more expensive. Jet fuel, which airlines buy in enormous quantities, saw some of the sharpest increases. In Asia, prices surged even higher, hitting $200 to $250 a barrel by late March.

For anyone planning summer travel, this matters. A lot.

Airlines Are Already Cutting Routes

United Airlines moved first. CEO Scott Kirby announced the airline would begin "tactically pruning flying that's temporarily unprofitable," cutting approximately 5% of planned routes during the second and third quarters of 2026. That means fewer options for summer travelers on certain routes.

Ryanair, Europe's largest airline, warned that the fuel crunch could curtail summer schedules by 5 to 10% if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. CEO Michael O'Leary did not mince words about the impact. Lufthansa is considering grounding roughly 5% of its fleet.

These aren't small adjustments. When airlines cut 5-10% of flights, remaining seats become scarcer. That pushes prices up even further. Average airfares in early April reached $465 for domestic roundtrips, the highest for this period since at least 2019.

What This Means for Summer Flight Prices

If jet fuel prices stay near current levels, airlines face an estimated $11 billion in additional annual fuel costs. They will pass some of that along to passengers. How much depends on a few factors.

Routes with strong competition may see smaller increases as airlines fight for passengers. Routes with fewer alternatives, especially those to the Middle East and Asia where regional fuel costs are even higher, will see the biggest jumps.

British Airways and other UK carriers are particularly exposed because the UK was heavily reliant on refined jet fuel exports from the Middle East. Australia is in a similar position, having imported much of its jet fuel from China and South Korea, both of which have now restricted exports of refined products.

The Silver Lining for Transatlantic Travelers

Here is where it gets interesting. Before the fuel crisis hit, transatlantic booking demand was already softening. Bookings from the U.S. to Europe for July 2026 were down 7.2% year over year, according to forward-looking data. Europe-to-U.S. bookings dropped even more, falling 14.2%.

Meanwhile, airlines had already added capacity on transatlantic routes. KLM's hub at Amsterdam saw 23% fewer bookings from Europe to the U.S. while the airline increased flying by nearly 9%. That gap between supply and demand creates a situation where airlines might discount fares to fill seats, even as fuel costs climb.

The result could be a summer where some routes get significantly more expensive while others, particularly popular transatlantic corridors, stay surprisingly affordable as airlines compete for a smaller pool of travelers.

Three Things to Do Right Now

First, if you have a summer trip in mind and you see a fare you can live with, book it. Prices are more likely to go up than down from here, and flight cuts mean fewer options later.

Second, consider shoulder season travel. May and early June fares have not spiked as dramatically as July and August. The same East Coast to London route that might cost $900 in July could still be $500 in May.

Third, watch for deals on routes where airlines overbuilt capacity. Transatlantic flights, especially on carriers like ITA Airways, LOT Polish Airlines, Aer Lingus, and KLM, may offer real bargains as those airlines try to fill additional seats they committed to before the fuel crisis began.

The fuel situation could shift quickly. If diplomatic progress opens the Strait of Hormuz, prices could normalize within weeks. But airline CEOs have said publicly that stabilization will take months, not days. Plan accordingly.

FAQ

How much have jet fuel prices increased in 2026?

U.S. jet fuel prices nearly doubled from $2.50 per gallon on February 27 to $4.88 per gallon on April 2, 2026, driven by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following military action against Iran.

Will summer 2026 flights be more expensive?

Most likely, yes. Airlines face an estimated $11 billion in additional annual fuel costs, and major carriers including United, Ryanair, and Lufthansa have already announced flight cuts of 5-10%. Fewer seats and higher costs typically mean higher fares.

Are there any cheap flight deals for summer 2026?

Transatlantic routes may still offer deals because booking demand from the U.S. to Europe is down 7.2% year over year while airlines added capacity. Watch for discounted fares on European carriers that need to fill seats.

When is the best time to book summer 2026 flights?

Now, if you see a reasonable fare. With airlines cutting routes and fuel costs rising, available options will shrink and prices will likely increase as summer approaches. May and early June departures offer better value than peak July and August dates.

Images: Hero by Madison Olling. Fuel gauge by Rock Staar. All via Unsplash, used under license.